Apple Fiscal 1Q 2013 Estimate

This time I will definitely take chances and publish my estimates for Apple earnings for the Christmas 2012 Quarter (commonly known in Apple terminology as the 1st fiscal quarter of 2013.

This is definitely a challenging task as this quarter brings a lot of uncertainty and a lot of rumors have been circulating.
But if you ignore the rumors there are still some facts that deserve consideration.

First here come the numbers and I will detail the facts and supporting assumptions that I used.

Mac – the PC market is shrinking, even if Apple share of it is growing. Only laptops were really available during this quarter so I plan lower unit sales than last year by about 7%.

iPhone – this is the wild guess and probably the number with the highest range of estimates. I based my guess (this really end up being a guess really) on the fact that Apple increase his manufacturing capability year over year according to the number of devices they plan on selling. Increasing manufacturing is a very expensive proposition for the company so I’m sure they take this very seriously. I estimated a 50% increase compared to last year number.

iPad – it will all depend on how many iPad mini apple was able to produce. those devices were sold as soon as they were hitting the stores, they could not keep any inventory. So they probably sold as many as they could produce. Let’s assume 10 millions iPads mini and 16 iPads (that’s just 2 millions more than last quarter). Of course the average price goes down accordingly.
This number may actually be a little low.

iPod – down 25%.

Music/Peripherals/Software – I see those growing according to the rest of the devices sales and in line with previous years.
Music 40%
Peripherals 20%
Software 7%

Gross margin at 40% and Tax rate at 25% sound reasonable but those rates may seriously alter the Net income. Getting the revenues right is not enough to be on target with Net income as last quarter demonstrated.

End result:

Revenues a little short of $60B and EPS at $15.5. Those are aggressive numbers but we will know by Wednesday what the reality is.