I keep hearing economists and analyst debating about the future of the Euro and one thing always strikes me – they never take into consideration the psychological factor attached to changing your national currency.
Of course most of the people commenting are americans and for them abandoning their currency is simply inconceivable. The Dollar is king and will remain that way, there is no question.
For most of the people in the 17 countries that participated in the currency change it was a really really big deal. Abandoning your currency is like giving up part of your national sovereignty, it’s a serious business, certainly not something that can be debated casually like we can witness it almost daily.
For the last 60 years most of european politicians have been working at building Europe, often having to fight the public opinion to make progress. Adopting the Euro was a major major achievement, logistically of course but even more psychologically.
10 years later the public has accepted this idea, it’s certainly not something that will be undo casually because of economical issues.
Maybe one country can leave the Euro but I simply cannot conceive that European leaders will let the Euro disappear. There are many many other steps before this happens. Of course nobody want to take those steps because they are painful (talk to the greek about that) but they will happen before we see the Euro disappear.