iPhone 5: sooner than later

I have a personal theory about the upcoming iPhone 5 release. I see it coming sooner than later.
The rational beyond that is based on a few facts:
- Apple can be worried about their Q3 2012. If the iPhone 4S sales starts to slow down, having a product introduction would be a good way to boost the revenues.
- Every time a new Apple product is released there is a period of approximatively 2 months when this product is under some serious supply constraints. The latest to date that experimented this shortage of supply is the iPad 3. It has been available after a delay for at least 2 months. It was the same for the previous iPhone.
- iPhone 5 is a product that is expected to get a lot of success because of the renewal business. People who already use an iPhone and are waiting for the iPhone 5 to upgrade their old phone.
There are no numbers to estimate that market but a little survey is enough to indicate that it’s a big number of devices.
- The previous years sales number also shows that a lot of iPhones (and smartphones in general) find their ways under the christmas tree. Last year the christmas quarter showed a very large increase in iPhone sales.

So it would not be very smart for Apple to be supply constrained by 2 simultaneous events (renewal and christmas), that’s why I would not be surprised to see an announcement of the new iPhone 5 at the end of August or very beginning of September, instead of end of October.
That way Apple can work their way through the supply constraint due to renewal purchases through September and October. And do it all over again for Christmas in November and December.
That would be smart.